“Chilling…”
Economists generally have a very poor track record for calling recessions. Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), on the other hand, has correctly predicted the beginning and end of all recessions correctly for the past 15 years. While the general consensus opinion is calling for the U.S. not to head into another recession, ECRI’s current forecast is that economy is going to get worse. ECRI’s call:
- If the U.S. isn’t already in a recession now, it’s about to enter one.
- More pain is coming…the unemployment rate will certainly go higher.
- GDP is likely to go negative by the first quarter of 2012, if not sooner.
- We’ve entered into a vicious cycle, and it’s too late: A recession can’t be averted.
14 million Americans (9.1%) are currently unemployed with more than 6.2 million having been out of work for more than 6 months. It is estimated that the actual tally of the underemployed is 16.5%. Yet, back at the ranch, our U.S. government leaders are paralyzed and lack any type of urgency. It’s getting seriously dark folks (and has been dark for too many Americans for too long). It’s crunch time.
Sources: NY Times: The Ugly Forecast That’s Been Right Before. Photo: Sturt Krygsman – The Australian, 2008